Come May 29, 2023 Bola Ahmed Tinubu, Nigeria’s president elect who won the highly contested 25 February presidential election with 37% of the total votes would be sworn in as Nigeria’s president.
However, the new president will face many challenges, chief of which is insecurity, with others being armed conflicts, organized crime and worsening food insecurity to mention just a few, with fear that Tinubu’s unprecedented choice of a fellow Muslim as vice-president is likely to increase ethnic and religious tensions in the north-central zone, and also allegations that discrimination against Igbos in Lagos could spur Biafra-related activism and violence in the south-east.
In the north-central region, Tinubu’s presidency will likely face more communal conflicts between farmers and herders which have long interlinked with ethnic and religious tensions, while his promises to create more employment opportunities and establish civilian neighbourhood watch groups hold potential for reducing the Boko Haram conflict and banditry in the north-east and north-west.
Since 1999, all past administrations have semi-officially shared power in religious and ethnic terms to manage sectarian sentiment, Nigeria being a secular country with almost equal Muslim and Christian populations.
Tinubu received the most votes and met the constitutional requirement of at least 25% of the vote in 25 of Nigeria’s 36 states. This indicates a nationwide appeal. But the “Muslim-Muslim” perception may increase religious polarization and undermine the new government’s ability to address the causes and consequences of communal violence.
The presidential candidate Peter Obi, an Igbo, enjoys a massive youth following in southern Nigeria. Numerous Igbo elders and Obi’s allies dissuaded the group from attempting to sabotage the election.
During the campaign, Tinubu pledged to negotiate with Indigenous People of Biafra. In contrast, Buhari had treated it as a terrorist group.
In the north-east region, Boko Haram and the Islamic State of West Africa are expected to challenge Tinubu’s administration. They previously challenged Buhari’s and Goodluck Jonathan’s.
Tinubu’s manifesto frames the insurgency as a security problem spawned by a socioeconomic crisis. It outlines the need to create jobs and revamp the nation’s security architecture. But his policy document is silent on reintegrating Boko Haram members into society.
In 2013, Tinubu sparked controversy when he advocated amnesty for Boko Haram members. Two years later, the Buhari administration set up “Operation Safe Corridor” for those who surrendered. The military claims the programme has reduced Boko Haram’s fighting force.
A recent survey shows that people appear to be more receptive to the return of former insurgents than previously thought. Tinubu’s vice-president-elect, Kashim Shettima, has previously called for amnesty – so Tinubu will likely continue the programme.
Finally, in the north-west, militias known as bandits continue kidnapping for ransom, stealing cattle and killing people. According to the Armed Conflict Location and Events Dataset, bandits killed more than 2,600 civilians in 2021. This is a staggering increase compared with 2020. Bandits have no stated political aim.
The conflict began as a land dispute between Hausa farmers and Fulani herders. It has been partly linked to the impact of climate change. In January 2022, Buhari (a Fulani) banned the militias as terrorist groups and deployed the military.
Since then, military air raids have repeatedly killed civilians instead of militants.
Contrary to Buhari’s approach, Tinubu called for engagement with violence-affected communities. His policy document emphasises using civilian neighbourhood watch groups to address banditry. Whether these groups will be limited to non-violent conflict resolution or engage in armed vigilantism is unclear.
The new administration faces enormous challenges in addressing widespread armed conflict and deep societal divisions.
Lawmaking and law enforcement are critical to dealing with the root causes of insecurity, such as poverty and unemployment. It’s also important to have ethnic and religious balance in the appointment of crucial security positions.
This could reduce tensions and make dialogue possible, particularly with community leaders and religious associations.
